Consumer caution, shifting inflation expectations, political brinkmanship, and corporate resilience set the tone across Europe today.
UK spending data shows households tightening their belts, even as the Bank of England signals modest relief ahead from Reeves’ budget.
In France, Prime Minister Lecornu faces a knife-edge vote that could upend the 2026 social security plan.
And in the corporate world, Trafigura’s hefty dividend hike underscores how diversified trading houses are navigating a still-uneven economic landscape.
UK consumers pull back in November
According to new data from Barclays, UK households cut back on card spending in November, down about 1.1% compared to last year.
That’s actually the biggest drop since early 2021. Most of the pullback came from non-essentials like eating out, buying clothes, going to pubs, and entertainment, which pretty much signals that people are feeling cautious right now.
Pre-budget uncertainty and the ongoing squeeze from high living costs aren’t helping either.
Spending on essentials, like groceries, did grow a bit, but not enough to make up for the slowdown elsewhere. Even Black Friday, which usually gives retailers a solid bump, didn’t do much this time.
According to the BRC-KPMG numbers, retail sales in November grew only 1.4% overall, far below what many hoped for.
BoE sees budget easing inflation
The Bank of England says Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ new budget could knock about 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points off annual inflation for a year starting in Q2 2026.
Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli shared this early analysis while speaking to the Treasury Committee, explaining that the drop mainly comes from policies aimed at lowering household energy bills and freezing rail fares.
This lines up pretty closely with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s earlier forecast, which also predicted a 0.4-point inflation dip in 2026/27.
If things play out that way, it could help the BoE reach its 2% inflation target a bit sooner, especially with CPI still sitting around 3.6%.
Lombardelli said the impact is modest but definitely “in the right direction.”
Still, how consumers react will be a big factor in what the Bank decides to do at its upcoming December 18 rate meeting.
France braces for budget clash
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is heading into a high-stakes vote on Tuesday as the National Assembly decides the fate of the 2026 social security budget, the plan that covers everything from healthcare to pensions to welfare.
With no majority in parliament, he’s trying to win over the Socialists by promising more funding for hospitals and delaying Macron’s controversial 2023 pension reform until 2027.
But that strategy could backfire. Center-right allies, including figures close to Edouard Philippe, are already warning that Lecornu is being too soft on fiscal discipline.
Meanwhile, the big opposition blocs are lining up against the budget: the far-right National Rally with its 140 MPs, the far-left France Unbowed with 71, plus the ecologists and communists who together hold 55 seats.
Lecornu needs 288 votes, and he’s nowhere near that on paper.
If the budget fails, France could be staring at a €30 billion shortfall, the collapse of the main fiscal plan, and a messy fallback to 2025’s rollover measures.
Trafigura lifts dividends despite profit dip
Trafigura is raising its dividend payout by a big 50%, bringing total dividends for the year to $2.9 billion, even though net profit slipped 3% to $2.67 billion in the year ending September 30, 2025.
Considering last year’s profit collapse of 60%, this year’s dip looks far more manageable. EBITDA held steady at $8.2 billion, though group equity inched down to $16.2 billion.
The company booked $843 million in impairments, including a $341 million write-down on assets such as Nyrstar’s Australian smelter.
It also set aside $708.9 million for the Mongolia fraud case, pushing total fraud-related losses to around $1.2 billion.
On the trading side, oil was a strong performer with volumes jumping 10% to 6.6 million barrels per day, while metals trading slumped 16%.
CEO Richard Holtum highlighted the numbers as proof that Trafigura’s diversified model is helping it stay resilient in a tough environment.
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