Prediction markets are supposed to turn public information into prices.
In the case now unfolding around Polymarket, prosecutors say the opposite happened as a US Army soldier allegedly used classified knowledge about a secret military operation to bet on the outcome.
According to Thursday’s unsealed indictment and the CFTC’s civil complaint, Gannon Ken Van Dyke staked about $33,034 and allegedly walked away with roughly $409,881 after wagering on Venezuela-linked event contracts tied to Nicolás Maduro’s capture.
When a classified operation becomes a trading signal
The government says Van Dyke was not an outside spectator.
Prosecutors allege he was involved in the planning and execution of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the US military mission to capture Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
The indictment says he had access to sensitive, nonpublic, classified information from at least Dec. 8, 2025, through at least Jan. 6, 2026, and that he signed nondisclosure agreements covering Western Hemisphere operations.
Officials say he was stationed at Fort Bragg and had been an active-duty Army soldier for years.
That access, prosecutors allege, became the basis for trading on Polymarket.
The DOJ says Van Dyke created an account around Dec. 26, 2025 and made about 13 bets from Dec. 27 through Jan. 2.
His bets were on the “Yes” side of markets, including “Maduro out by January 31, 2026,” “US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026,” “Will the US invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026,” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela.”
The total outlay was about $33,034, according to the indictment.
The bet paid off as soon as the raid became public
The timing is the heart of the case.
Prosecutors say that in the predawn hours of Jan. 3, 2026, US special forces apprehended Maduro and Flores in Caracas, and hours later the president publicly announced the operation.
After that announcement, Polymarket resolved several of the relevant contracts to “Yes,” including “Maduro out by January 31, 2026” and “US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026.”
The DOJ says Van Dyke’s profits totaled about $409,881.
The complaint adds a detail that makes the trade look less like luck and more like advanced positioning.
It says Van Dyke used the Polymarket handle “Burdensome-Mix” and bought more than 436,000 “Yes” shares in the Maduro-out contract between Dec. 30 and Jan. 2.
The CFTC says those trades generated more than $404,000 in profit.
Read more- Inside $170M Iran ceasefire bets: Polymarket faces scrutiny surge
Regulators are treating this as a market-structure case
The enforcement response is broader than one trader.
The DOJ charged Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.
The CFTC filed a parallel civil complaint seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction.
The CFTC said this is its first insider-trading case involving event contracts and its first use of the so-called “Eddie Murphy Rule” for misuse of government information.
A concealment narrative strengthens the fraud case
Prosecutors also say the story did not end once the contracts were settled.
The indictment alleges Van Dyke withdrew most of the proceeds, moved about 437,859 USDC.e to a foreign cryptocurrency vault.
He then shifted roughly 444,209 USDC.e into a newly created brokerage account.
It further says he later asked Polymarket to delete his account and changed the email on his crypto exchange account to obscure his identity.
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