As talks between the US and Iran start in Oman, there are increasing signs that President Donald Trump is preparing an attack, possibly aimed at conducting regime change.
Odds of a Trump attack on Iran are rising
The US Virtual Embassy in Iran has asked Americans to leave the country now and prepare for departure that doesn’t rely on government assistance. This statement is a sign that Trump plans to launch an attack.
Data on Polymarket shows that the odds of an attack happening by December 31 rose to 63%. Odds of the attack happening before June 30 have jumped to 52%.
Most analysts believe that the upcoming talks are largely meaningless as the US has made some demands that Iran will not accept. It has asked it to scale down its ballistic missile program, which proved effective during the 12-day war, stop sponsoring proxies, and curtail its civilian nuclear program.
At the same time, Trump’s “beautiful armada” has arrived in the region, with more strike groups expected. All this is happening at a time when Trump is under pressure from Fox News and commentators, including Sean Hannity, Mike Pompeo, and Mark Levin. Republican politicians like Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, and Tom Cotton have all made the case for an attack.
Iran, on the other hand, has warned that any attack will lead to a regional war. It will likely target American bases in the Middle East and Israel.
Gold, crude oil prices, and value stocks are rising
A closer look at the financial market shows that participants are preparing for an attack to happen. Risky assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks have plunged while safe-haven assets have soared.
Gold price has jumped to nearly $5,000, while value stocks have gone parabolic as evidenced by the ongoing SCHD ETF surge. Swiss franc, a popular safe-haven asset, has jumped to a multi-decade high.
Crude oil prices have also jumped recently. Brent has jumped to $68, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $63. Oil prices will likely continue rising in the case of an attack, as Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has jumped to $22, its highest level since November last year, as worries rise. All these indicators are signs that Trump plans to attack.
How the new US-Iran crisis started
Iran and the US have been in a conflict for nearly a century. The new crisis started when the Trump administration engineered the collapse of the Iranian currency through sanctions and other measures. Data shows that the USD to Iranian rial (USD/IRR) has jumped to nearly 1,200,000.
The currency’s crash led to peaceful protests in the country as citizens demonstrated against the crash and the soaring inflation. These protests were then infiltrated by rioters, some of whom were Mossad and the CIA.
As the protests continued, Trump pledged to help protesters in case of killings, drawing a red line. While numbers differ, it is estimated that thousands of Iranians were killed. Therefore, Trump will likely attack because he believes that his red line was breached by the regime.
Politicians close to Trump have advised him to eliminate the regime, and this week, he warned that the Ayatollah was not safe.
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