The United States recently arrested two Mexican drug kingpins. Will this reduce violence or generate other beneficial effects?
According to a recent Cato Research Brief, just the opposite:
Our findings suggest that [kingpin] Don Berna’s extradition caused an average of 1.2 more homicides within 250 meters of a school each year from 2009 to 2013. Further analysis suggests that each additional homicide within 250 meters of a school led to a 1.1 percent decline in math test scores.
These results on violence echo an earlier brief, which found
that the capture of a DTO [Drug Trafficking Organization] leader in a municipality [in Mexico] increases its homicide rate by 80 percent.
The obvious forecast is thus that violence will increase in Mexico in response to these recent kingpin arrests.
And prohibitionists will then cite the increase as reason to escalate the war on drugs.
This article appeared on Substack on August 8, 2024.